Farming & Agriculture: Changing Weather Makes Cattle Business a ...

Even as storm clouds gathered last week following two of the driest months in memory, local cattle ranchers were trying to evaluate the business consequences of the lack of grass caused by the drought.

(Independent News) This week, there seemed to be as many questions as answers. Winter grass is vital for cattle to gain weight. A skinny cow brings little return. The inch or two of rain that fell over the weekend will start the grass growing again, but how much and how fast? Once started, will the rain return, or will the rest of the winter be dry?

Some ranchers, like Livermore's Paul Banke, made the decision to ship some cattle out to make room for others. Some, like San Ramon's Jeff Nielsen, were postponing the decision a little longer. "If it gets dry again, we'll have to send some away," he said.

Banke is a third generation rancher who raises his own cattle and manages herds for others. Hikers at Del Valle Regional Park often see his managed herds.

In a typical year, Banke manages 240-360 steers in pastures at the southeast end of Del Valle. This year, the herd belongs to Monson Ranches of eastern Washington State. Last week, because of the lack of grass, he sent off 100 head to a small feedlot in Winnemucca, Nev., to make room for 173 that remained.

He also has cattle of his own, 280 cow-calf pairs that he hopes to build up to perhaps 350 pairs if the rain returns.

Managing herds for distant owners means making sure the cattle are healthy and have adequate food during the winter months. Like most ranchers, Banke is a good amateur veterinarian. "Eighty percent of the problems I see, I know what to do," he says. Being competent also means knowing when to call in a professional vet, which he does when necessary. But he runs a business, and if he can keep the cattle healthy at no cost by his own efforts, he does.

In managing herds that belong to others, Banke receives payment based on weight gain. The herds typically consist of yearling steers called stockers that are weaned and can fend for themselves. If they arrive in November, the year turns wet and the grass grows tall, it is reasonable to expect a gain of 300 pounds or more per head by the time they are ready for shipping to a processing center in spring.

Shipping off 100 head in January means taking a loss, at least on those. Despite the recent rain, there is no guarantee that the rest of the winter will be much better. In fact, with one-third of the grass growing season already lost, Banke estimates there is no better than a 20 percent chance that the remaining season will be "perfect," meaning rainy enough to generate the grass to fatten up the cattle.

Banke attended Livermore High School and then Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, where he graduated in agricultural business in 1968. He worked for Well Fargo Bank and two professional cattle associations before returning to his family's business. He bases his estimate of the remaining growing season on near and long-range forecasts from the various weather services and on historical weather trends for this area. He also uses his professional judgment to consider the health and well being of the cattle.

Organizations like the Cattlemen's Association offer resources for cattle management, and Bay Area ranchers can talk things over among themselves. "Everyone is looking at when to pull the trigger" - when to make the hard decision to sell early if that becomes necessary, Banke says.

The feedlots where the cattle will go are generally east, from Nevada at the closest to Kansas and Nebraska. Banke once shipped to Indiana. The timing is crucial. In January, the ground at the feedlots will be frozen and covered with snow. Even if it's possible to truck them over the mountain passes, anyone who buys the Tri-Valley cattle will have to pay for feed and won't be likely to offer a good price in California.

So local cattlemen are hoping the rain picks up again, the grass grows and the cattle can be kept around at least until April, when grass will be plentiful at the feedlots.

Jeff Nielsen, a San Ramon rancher, is part of the longtime Dublin Nielsen family. He and other family members have herds in Tehama, Glenn and Siskiyou counties as well as locally, so in some years a diversity of weather can protect their cattle business the way a diversity of stock holdings can protect an investor.

This year, though, the weather has hit them all about the same, he says. "Agriculture is always a gamble."

Cattle ranching in the Bay Area is particularly challenging, Banke and Nielsen both say, because the industry is centered elsewhere. Here, a lot of agricultural land has been built over. Land and feed costs are high. Feedlots are hundreds if not thousands of miles away.

Banke is particularly annoyed at U.S. ethanol policy, which promotes the use of corn for biofuel and drives up the cost of other crops to replace the corn. Apart from corn's energy inefficiency as a fuel source, he sees U.S. policy as "a Third World disaster" because of higher food costs there. Locally, he finds that it adds $1200 to $1500 to his annual feed bills.

On the positive side, demand for American beef is high in Asia. That keeps sale prices high for some producers, he says.

In the meantime, waiting for the weather to make up its mind as the growing season slips past, there is plenty of work to do. Banke works a 6-day week, with at least a couple of hours of chores on Sundays.

It's a life that he loves, but as a business, it is hard and just about as unpredictable as the weather.

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